A Stock Market Review | Expecting A-Share Market to Consolidate Phase-by-Phase
Last Friday, the market experienced a correction, with the three major indices closing down slightly. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 1.60 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3377 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Sector-wise, the pharmaceutical, electrical equipment, AI smart bodies, and paper-making industries led the gains, while the shipbuilding, mining, PCB, and CPO sectors declined. As of Friday's closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%
At today's broker meeting, CITIC Securities pointed out that it expects the A-share market to consolidate phase-by-phase; China International Capital Corp proposed looking forward to strong internal power comprehensive leaders and high-growth subdivision leaders with growth opportunities.
CITIC Securities: Expecting A-Share Market to Consolidate Phase-by-Phase
CITIC Securities pointed out that last Friday's A-share market adjustment was a resonance of the pressures and changes in expectations after a long rally. Factors included the Politburo meeting and PMI data, leading to expectations of increased monetary policy and synchronized growth; the Fed's statements and nonfarm payrolls volatility, leading to uncertainties about interest rate cuts; and the US-China trade agreement, leading to reduced expectations for improved Sino-US relations. However, the global monetary easing environment remains unchanged, along with abundant liquidity in the A-share market, which has not changed investors' bull market expectations or the structural cyclical sentiment. The current market mood has cooled down from its exuberant state and is expected to consolidate phase-by-phase, which will also benefit the slow-growth trend of A-shares. In the short term, attention will focus on when the US dollar index will weaken again and how the Sino-US trade negotiations progress. Key industries to watch include semiconductors, AI applications, humanoid robots, innovative drugs, colored metals, defense and military manufacturing, transportation, and non-bank finance.
China International Capital Corp: Looking Forward to Strong Internal Power Comprehensive Leaders and High-Growth Subdivision Leaders with Growth Opportunities
China International Capital Corp pointed out that the current situation is characterized by a concentration of new listings in the tea-based beverage/catering company sector, which has raised sector performance. In an environment where consumer demand is yet to reach its turning point, companies with their own growth momentum will lead the way in terms of stock price performance, thus gaining relatively high valuation levels. On the other hand, large-cap companies with high correlations with macro cycles will still be valued lower than historical means. Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, we are optimistic about strong internal power comprehensive leaders and high-growth subdivision leaders' growth opportunities in a context where service consumption is expected to have its own growth momentum and potential policy support.