CSOP: Global Growth Momentum Up, Seize Equity Investment Opportunities
We have learned that CSOP Securities has released a research report stating that the global growth factor is upward, China's economic growth factor continues to rise, and domestic financial conditions remain relaxed. Crude oil supply factors are short-term downward. It is expected that by August 2025, we will enter the second stage of the Kondratieff cycle, and it is recommended to configure stocks. The CSOP Bond Long-Term Tactical Allocation strategy has a year-on-year return of 6.09%, with a maximum drawdown of 1.06% and a quarterly win rate of 93.62%. Meanwhile, the same-period benchmark has a year-on-year return of 5.0%, with a maximum drawdown of 3.38% and a quarterly win rate of 78.72%. For bonds, it is recommended to prioritize short-term defense in the third quarter, with a configuration suggestion for currency assets. The CSOP Bond Long-Term Tactical Allocation strategy has a year-on-year return of 4.91%, with a maximum drawdown of 4.58% and a quarterly win rate of 77.48%. Meanwhile, the same-period benchmark has a year-on-year return of 3.57%, with a maximum drawdown of 16.50% and a quarterly win rate of 61.26%. For stocks, it is recommended to prioritize short-term defense in the third quarter, with a configuration suggestion for the Shanghai Composite Index. According to A-share listed companies' performance tracking system, from the second-quarter report's situation, the super-expectation values of Shenzhen and Shanghai 300, and midcap indexes are all higher than their historical average levels. Overall, under the background of domestic economic recovery, it is recommended to seize equity investment opportunities and select high-growth stocks that benefit from China's internal growth momentum.
CSOP's Key Points:
Macro Factor Tracking: Global Growth Momentum Up
A review of the global macro factors system shows that the global growth factor is upward, China's economic growth factor continues to rise, and domestic financial conditions remain relaxed. Crude oil supply factors are short-term downward. Global assets have been relatively stable for about a month, with stocks and emerging markets showing significant gains in the short term, while global risk assets continue to recover.
Strategic Configuration: Past 1-year Return 3.88%, Maximum Drawdown -0.17%
A strategy covering seven types of domestic assets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, based on asset-weighted risk-adjusted pricing, can serve as a strategic configuration. The strategy has an annual return of 3.92%, with a maximum drawdown of -2.37% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.33. The average annual turnover rate is 37.70%. In the past year, the rolling return was 3.88%, with a maximum drawdown of -0.17%.
Tactical Configuration: Kondratieff Cycle in August 2025 Maintains Stage Two, Recommends Configuring Stocks
CSOP believes that China is currently in the early indicators, synchronous indicators are rising, and lagging indicators are falling. Based on CSOP's improved Kondratieff cycle theory, the strategy has an annual return of 21.18% since 2016, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.83 and maximum drawdown of -6.38%. In the past nine years, the strategy has consistently generated positive returns. It is believed that China's economy is currently in the second stage of this cycle system, with the model recommending configuring stocks.
Bond Market Recommendation: Short-Term Defense Mainly for Chinese Bonds and Long-Term Attack for US Bonds
CSOP has built a Chinese bond long-term tactical allocation strategy with an annual return of 6.09%, maximum drawdown of 1.06% and quarterly win rate of 93.62%. The same-period benchmark has an annual return of 5.0%, maximum drawdown of 3.38% and quarterly win rate of 78.72%. For Chinese bonds, it is recommended to prioritize short-term defense in the third quarter with a configuration suggestion for currency assets. CSOP has built a US bond long-term tactical allocation strategy with an annual return of 4.91%, maximum drawdown of 4.58% and quarterly win rate of 77.48%. The same-period benchmark has an annual return of 3.57%, maximum drawdown of 16.50% and quarterly win rate of 61.26%. For US bonds, it is recommended to prioritize long-term attack in the third quarter with a configuration suggestion for 7-10-year Treasury securities.
Stock Market Recommendation: Seize Equity Investment Opportunities
According to A-share listed companies' performance tracking system, from the second-quarter report's situation, the super-expectation values of Shenzhen and Shanghai 300, and midcap indexes are all higher than their historical average levels. Overall, under the background of domestic economic recovery, it is recommended to seize equity investment opportunities and select high-growth stocks that benefit from China's internal growth momentum.