How to Predict the Breakout Point of Power Semiconductors in Automotive Electrification?

In the process of automotive electrification, the demand situation for power semiconductors has received much attention. Accurately judging the breakout point of power semiconductors in automotive electrification is a crucial issue that many professionals and investors care about. Let's explore the methods for predicting the breakout point and possible signals.

To judge the breakout point of power semiconductors in the automotive electrification field, it is necessary to comprehensively consider multiple factors. From a market perspective, the growing trend of new energy vehicle sales is a key indicator. New energy vehicles are one of the main application scenarios for power semiconductors, and when their sales show sustained and rapid growth, it means that the demand for power semiconductors will also increase accordingly. For example, if a country or region has consecutive quarters of year-on-year new energy vehicle sales growth exceeding 50%, and this trend is likely to continue in the future, then it may indicate that power semiconductor demand is about to break out.

Technological progress is another important factor affecting demand breakthrough. The continuous innovation of power semiconductor technology, such as higher power density, lower energy consumption, etc., will make its application in automotive electrification more widespread and in-depth. When a key technology achieves a major breakthrough, making the performance of power semiconductors significantly improved and costs significantly reduced, automakers are more motivated to adopt it on a large scale, driving demand breakthrough. For example, if silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductor technology can achieve mass production and reduce costs to a level comparable to traditional silicon-based power semiconductors, then the automotive industry may have a strong demand for SiC power semiconductors.

Government support policies are also worth noting. Government policies supporting the new energy vehicle industry, such as purchase subsidies, tax incentives, and planning for charging infrastructure, will directly or indirectly affect the demand for power semiconductors. If governments launch a series of vigorous policies to encourage the popularization and development of new energy vehicles, then automakers will increase their procurement efforts to meet market demands and policy requirements.

Below, we summarize the possible signals that may predict the breakout point of power semiconductor demand in the following table:

In summary, judging the breakout point of power semiconductors in automotive electrification requires comprehensive consideration of multiple factors, including market, technology, and policy. Closely monitoring these factors' changes and related signals can help us better grasp market dynamics and prepare for future developments.