Morgan Stanley: RMB Interbank Rate Shows Appreciation Tendency, RMB Exchange Rate Will Continue to Gradually Move Towards 7! US Data Softness and Fed Rate Cut May Trigger Further Yuan Depreciation

　Morgan Stanley indicates that the People's Bank of China has set the RMB interbank rate showing an appreciation tendency, and the RMB exchange rate will continue to gradually move towards 7.

　Morgan Stanley notes that since May, the RMB interbank rate has gradually strengthened month by month, showing a stable and controllable appreciation tendency. Regardless of the recent dollar trend, the People's Bank of China has maintained an exceptional appreciation tendency for the RMB. This indicates that in the background of market expectations of a weak US dollar, the People's Bank is actively engaged in forward-looking foreign exchange management.

　Morgan Stanley believes that the People's Bank will continue to implement a gradual appreciation path for the RMB against the US dollar, and the exchange rate may reach 7 within the next six months. US data softness and a potential Fed rate cut may trigger further yuan depreciation. Morgan Stanley suggests that the actual volatility of the US dollar against the RMB has decreased, partly reflecting market expectations of a significant upgrade in China-US relations, which also highlights the bank's clear tendency to avoid sharp fluctuations in the RMB.