Mounjaro's Cardiovascular Protection Effects Fail to Surpass Trulicity! Lilly (LLY.US) Disappoints the Market

We've learned from intelligent financial APP that Lilly (LLY.US)'s star diabetes drug Mounjaro has shown in a head-to-head comparison study that its effects on preventing heart attacks and strokes are basically equivalent to that of the company's old drug Trulicity.

This is the largest and longest trial conducted by Lilly to date, originally aimed at proving that Mounjaro "is not inferior" to Trulicity in reducing major cardiovascular events, hoping to demonstrate that Mounjaro is an acceptable alternative treatment option.

Although it achieved this goal, the study results shattered investors' expectations of a significant advantage for Mounjaro over old drugs.

Analyst Michael Shaah stated, "There's no mention of superiority - and Lilly did conduct this test, so market reaction might be very negative."

Lilly's stock price plummeted by 5.3% in pre-market trading, narrowing to a 1% decline as of the release.

The study enrolled over 13,000 patients with type 2 diabetes and a history of cardiovascular disease, who were randomly assigned to receive either Mounjaro or Trulicity treatment for an average of four years. Lilly's results show that Mounjaro can effectively reduce the risk of heart attacks, strokes, and cardiovascular deaths, but its effects did not significantly surpass those of old drugs like Trulicity.

Mounjaro performed better in other health indicators. Compared to the Trulicity group, patients taking Mounjaro had a lower all-cause mortality rate by 16%. Lilly stated that patients in the Mounjaro group showed greater improvements in blood sugar control, weight loss, and blood pressure reduction. The two drugs' most common side effects were mild gastrointestinal symptoms.

The phenomenon of Mounjaro users losing more weight but having similar cardiovascular risk reductions suggests that this type of GLP-1 drug may have an independent cardiac protective effect beyond its weight loss benefits. Lilly plans to present the full study at a medical conference in September and submit new data to global regulatory agencies by year-end, seeking to add reducing cardiovascular risk as an indication for Mounjaro.

Lilly's Cardiovascular Metabolism Business President Ken Caster stated, "These findings reinforce the potential of Mounjaro as a first-line treatment option for patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease."

Trulicity has been approved by US regulatory agencies since 2020 for reducing major cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Lilly is competing with its competitors, Novo Nordisk, to expand the indications of their drugs beyond diabetes and weight loss. Although most insurance companies cover diabetes treatment, many institutions are reluctant to cover weight loss purposes. Novo Nordisk has already confirmed that Ozempic and Wegovy can reduce cardiovascular event risk in obese and diabetic patients, giving them an advantage in negotiations with insurance companies and government healthcare agencies.

However, even without a heart health indication, Lilly still managed to capture a significant market share from Novo Nordisk. The company did not specifically conduct a cardiovascular risk study for its weight loss drug Zepbound, but rather evaluated its ability to reduce all-cause mortality through a long-term, large-scale trial, with the expected data release date being 2027.