Experts: The upcoming A-share bull market will surpass 6124 and trample this historical peak! Now we've reached the starting point, and individual investors must either believe or not.
On August 5th, according to Hexun Finance, "The upcoming A-share bull market will surpass 6124 and trample this historical peak!" Sun Jiaying, manager of Xinhu Holdings, recently expressed that now we've reached the starting point of a legendary bull market.
The bull market, when will it come? How far will it go? The timing is difficult to predict and depends on the macro situation. In 2007, the market rose from 998 to 6124, equivalent to a sixfold increase. We tend to believe that this high point will be surpassed and trampled.
Why will there be a legendary bull market? Countries entering the industrialization sequence globally typically experience a continuous rise in the stock market after reaching maturity. For example, South Korea's stock market rose four- to five-fold within eight years; the US experienced a 100-year bull market from 1932.
Will the legendary bull market make everyone rich? The market generally experiences four stages: "Don't believe it"; "Skeptical but willing to invest"; "Market surges and you can't understand it"; and finally, complete trust. To make money in this market, individual investors must either believe or not.
Some people think that a rising stock market can boost consumption. How do I view this? It's undeniable. Once the market rises, virtual profits increase, bringing about a strong sense of wealth illusion. People develop big-spending habits and find it hard to change when they lose money.
Will "bull short, bear long" still be repeated? Yes, because the game between funds is driven by sentiment rather than fundamental factors. It will take several rounds of capital rotation before we can see a new trend.
How do I view recent foreign investment trends in domestic stocks overall looking up? China is one of the safest and most convenient countries to live in, and it's also one of the largest economies. Its stock market is so cheap that it will attract international capital; it just depends on the timing.
How do I view recent developments in the US financial market? We should observe from a global perspective rather than focusing on small events. Interest rate cuts or not are minor issues; the core issue is the US's annual fiscal deficit of $12,000 billion. The US needs a leader like Roosevelt to turn things around, otherwise, it can only swallow the pill of QE (quantitative easing).
How likely is it that US stocks will fall back from their high? It's hard to predict when they'll peak or decline, but we believe this level cannot be touched. After 2022, everything the US stock market has risen by is not worth investing in because they're using a narrative to support this overvalued market.
How do I understand "narrative supports US stocks' overvaluation"? Any new thing's creator will eventually occupy only about 5% of the market space and profit. The narrative used to explain why Intel is so strong is imposed by the US and is an explanation for their high valuation. However, I can clearly say that this narrative is wrong in commercial history and technology history.
Trump claims the US is the pioneer of artificial intelligence competition. How do I view their actions? Before AI took off, Li Kaifu had already grasped this issue several years ago. AI's core is massive data, not just computing power and algorithms. In terms of network information, China has this massive data.