Goldman Sachs: Global Market Breakout! Hong Kong Stock Hits 4-Year High! Focus on These Sectors
Zhitong Caijing APP has learned that in July 2025, Goldman Sachs' strategy team released a deep market insight report, reaffirming its layout advice to focus on the US stock market outside of China. As China's offshore stock market breaks through nearly a year-long consolidation and hits a new high (MSCI China Index and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index perform well), geo-political concerns ease and "unravel" policy deepens as key variables driving global asset rebalancing.
The following summarizes core views, data, and configuration logic to decode investment directions:
One: Market Breakout: China's Offshore Stock Market Hits 4-Year High, MSCI China Index Rises Strongly
After nearly a year of market fluctuations, China's offshore stock market reaches a key turning point:
Index performance: MSCI China Index hits a new high, Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index refreshes its year-to-date high; since 2025, MSCI China Index has cumulatively risen by 25% (the second-best "first seven months" performance since 2010).
Driving factors:
Favorable market risk appetite: US-China trade relations ease, and the market's risk tolerance significantly increases;
Strong liquidity: Hong Kong market guarantees rapid increase in margin financing, and overseas investors' interest in Chinese stocks widens the gap between "conservative allocation" and its "actual configuration";
Policy resonance: "Unravel" policy (Supply-side Reform 2.0) deepens, reshaping industry structures, combined with an adjusted estimate of the market's P/E ratio (from 11.6 to 12), Goldman Sachs raises its target for MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 over the next 12 months.
Two: Investor Trends: US Capital "Turns" Toward China, but Configuration Remains in Cyclical Low Valley
Goldman Sachs' economists and strategists, Shen Xiuling and Liu Jingxin, feedback from North America shows that overseas investors are increasingly interested in the Chinese market:
Interest surges: US investors' attention to Chinese stocks increases, geo-political concerns significantly decrease compared to the previous two years;
Focused on "Unravel" policy: Investors intensely inquire about China's "Supply-side Reform 2.0" (Unravel) logic, and Goldman Sachs releases a report titled "Supply-side Reform 2.0: Questions and Answers About China's Unravel Policy", analyzing the policy's long-term impact on industry concentration, profit models;
Configuration contradictions await resolution: Although new emerging markets/Asia-focused funds frequently increase their holdings of Chinese stocks, global actively managed funds' allocation to China remains near cyclical low levels (with potential for "low-configuration replenishment" opportunities).
Three: Sector Adjustments: Super-Accelerate Insurance and Materials, Downgrade Real Estate and Banking
Based on the logic of "High Alpha" (individual stocks/sectors) and "Low Beta" (index rise), Goldman Sachs adjusts sector configurations, focusing on policy sensitivity, estimate repair, and profit expectations:
1. Super-Accelerate Sectors: Insurance and Materials lead the way.
Insurance: Estimates are relatively more attractive (2025 market P/E ratio 7.6, market price-to-book ratio 1.0), and benefits from market warming (premium income, investment endogenous) make it "super-accelerate";
Materials: Increase the sensitivity of the combination to "Unravel" policy (industry profit and supply-side reform strongly related, like capacity clearing and concentration enhancement); simultaneously raises its target to "super-accelerate".
2. Benchmark/ Low-Benchmark Adjustments.
Real Estate: Downgrades from "Super-Accelerate" to "Benchmark", reflecting industry cyclical changes and policy focus shifting (from "demand stimulation" to "supply-side reform");
Banking: Exchanges with Insurance sectors, downgrading from "Super-Accelerate" to "Benchmark". (2025 market P/E ratio 6.2, market price-to-book ratio 0.6; estimate Z-value is relatively high, short-term elasticity is limited).